均线模型量化股票交易


均线模型量化股票交易
摘 移动均线(MA)股市中常种分析技术行情波动段找效交易信号移动均线简单效股市操作具较指导作均线模型效败部分观策略成炒股炒期货必备基工具
文选阿里巴巴 2014 年 9 月股票数日收盘价进行 5 日20 日
60 日移动均先日收盘价 20 日均分析条均线交易策略通找出交易信号模拟交易发现条均线交易策略会许亏损通图表分析策略够较预测股价走势相观投资更合理然 5 日均 20 日均做两条均线交易策略条均线模型优化模拟交易发现交易够盈利

关键词：股票 移动均 均线交易策略 模拟交易II


1均线模型简单介绍
11移动均线
文采统计学中移动均原理计算股票日收盘价简单移动均段时期股票价格均值连成曲线显示股价历史波动情况进反映股价指数未发展趋势
12均线特性
（1） 滑性通均线滑移动修复股价规偶然变动
（2） 灵敏性稳定性均线参数取值特性参数越灵敏性越强稳定性越差参数越稳定性越强灵敏性越差
（3） 助涨性助跌性升趋势线助涨特性降趋势线助跌特性
13均线模型
日K线图中标准价格K线外外4条线分白线黄线紫线绿
线次分表示：5日10日20日60日移动均线通4条线价格K线交叉形成均线模型

利均线滑特点发现均线价格K线会叉均线间交叉通交叉点判断交易信号：黄金交叉10日均线穿越30日均线10日均线30日均线交叉点黄金交叉黄金交叉头表现出现黄金交叉市会定涨幅空间进场佳时机死亡交叉30日均线10日均线交叉时30日均线住穿越10日均线形成
30日均线10日均线时交点称死亡交叉死亡交叉预示空头市场股市跌时出场佳时机
2R语言实现模型建立
21互联网载股票数
利quantmod包getSymbols()函数默认会通Yahoo金融开放API载数选择阿里巴巴股票数201409191年日间交易数数类型 xts格式时间序列数包括7列日期做索引列6列分 开盘价(Open) 高价(High) 低价(Low) 收盘价(Close) 交易量(Volume) 调整价(Adjusted)
22定义均线图
定义均线指标：日期时间序列索引收盘价做价格指标考虑成交量维度字段取20140919形成趋势数画出价格曲线5日均线20日均线60 日均线

通封装移动均函数视化函数实现交易软件中类似日K线图条均线结合视化输出
23条均线交易策略模型设计思路：
1 股价20日均线交叉进行交易信号判断
2 股价穿20日均线买入(红色)穿20日均线卖出(蓝色)
首先画出股价20日均线图

散点覆盖20日均线红色点买入持蓝色点卖出空仓

股价20日均线价格做较股价均线部分蓝色表示股价均线部分红色表示图中蓝色点红色点20日均线交出现次红色出现第点买入股票然蓝色第点卖出股票
找出交易信号点100000金做模拟交易简化操作假定信号点满仓买入卖出手续费0
运算结果显示亏损11笔盈利3笔年亏损17038元似条均线模型失败仅没盈利反带亏损面股价模拟现金投入进行简单分析亏损原

该图示半红色部分日收盘价半蓝色部分模拟交易现金流见阿里股价14年年底开始走低根条均线模型进行投资策略较合理预测股市走势进行股票买入卖出定程度减少亏损
24两条均线交易策略
条均线模型趋势进行稳定投资条均线波动非常敏感性果波动频繁仅会增加交易次数会模型失效然二条均线策略模型减低波动敏感性
二条均线策略模型条均线模型思路类似5日均线价格换股价通5日
均线20日均线交叉进行信号交易
画出股价5日均线20日均线图

散点覆盖20日均线红色点买入持蓝色点卖出空仓

样条件进行两条均线交易策略模拟交易根运算结果然旧亏损11笔
盈利3笔终带总盈利7408元
25两种策略简单分析
策略模拟交易中进行30次交易终亏损10000元左右策略二进行
20次交易终带盈利7000左右明显两条均线交易策略更追踪股价趋势带投资者回报
起均线模型简单实盘交易时真趋势行情中跑赢双均线(优化)模型
真件容易事情

参考文献：
[1]常宁徐国祥金融高频数分析现状问题研究财研究2004（3）： 3139
[2]武振郑丕谔．基遗传神网络股价波动预测．天津学学报2004 6(4)：307—310
[3]马超群张明良ACD 族计量模型分类较分析金融济2005（8） 8687
[4]蒋学雷陈敏王国明等股票市场流动性度量动态 ACD 模型统计研究2004（4）：4244
[5] 王 晶王玉玲东进阮曙芬 回条件持续期(ACD)模型研究 统计决策 2006（6）
[6] Economist 2007a Ahead of the Tape–Algorithmic TradingEconomist June 23 2007‐ 2007b Dodgy Tickers–Stock Exchanges Economist March 10 2007
[7] M Kearns and L Ortiz The Penn‐Lehman automated trading project IEEE Intelligent Systems 2003 To appear
[8] Domowitz I and H Yegerman 2005 The Cost of Algorithmic Trading A First Look at Comparative Performance Edited by Brian R Bruce Algorithmic Trading PrecisionControl Execution Institutional Investor













附表：R语言代码
#加载必须函数包
library(plyr) library(quantmod) library(TTR) library(ggplot2) library(scales)
library（reshape2）
#设置存储位置
setwd(EStatistical modeling)
#载数
download#读数
readasxts(readzoo(filepaste(stockcsvsep)header TRUEsep formatYmd))
}
stockdownload(stockfrom＇20130101＇) BABA#定义移动均函数
ma} ldata}
##定义均线图函数
drawLinec(sDateeDate)) gif(out) ggsave(gfilepaste(titiepngsep)) else g
}
#选取数运行
cdataldatap0#画出股价20日均线图
ldata1###散点覆盖20日均线红色点买入持蓝色点卖出空仓
## 定义均线图+散点函数
drawPointg}
##定义获取散点数函数
getPointdatadatacompare[which(dist<0)]0)]}
#运行获取数
pdatap1##定义找出交易信号点函数
Signal} pdata1p[1]0)+1]}
#运行获取数
tdata###模拟交易
###利交易信号数进行模拟交易设定交易参数10W金满仓买入卖出手续0 ###传入交易信号
###参数：交易信号金持仓例手续费例
#规定数格式数点位数
options(scipen4) options(digits4)
##定义模拟交易函数
tradetif(t[14]S) t[15]} else { tamount[i]<0 tcash[i]}
}
t
}
#定义数运行
capital100000 result10)) fall###画出资金曲线
##定义画出股价+现金流量函数
drawCashncolnames(xx)yycolnames(yy)gg
}
#运行
p2ggsave(p2filepaste(close+cashpngsep)) #存图
###条均线模型趋势稳定赚钱条均线波动非常敏感性
###果波动频繁仅会增加交易次数会模型失效然二条均线
###策略模型减低波动敏感性二条均线策略模型条均线模型思路类似 ###5日均线价格换股价通5日均线20日均线交叉进行信号交易
###首先画出股价5日均线20日均线图
#选择5日20日滑动均指标
ldata2#画图
p33#步数框前函数格式应
ldata2#获取散点图
pdata2#画出散点图
p3#找出交易信号
tdata2#模拟交易
result20)) fall2#画出股价现金图
p4附表二：阿里股票数
Index
Open
High
Low
Close
Volume
Adjusted
2014919
92699997
99699997
89949997
93889999
271879400
93889999
2014922
92699997
92949997
895
89889999
66657800
89889999
2014923
88940002
90480003
86620003
87169998
39009800
87169998
2014924
88470001
9057
87220001
9057
32088000
9057
2014925
91089996
915
885
88919998
28598000
88919998
2014926
89730003
90459999
88660004
90459999
18340000
90459999
2014929
89620003
89699997
88019997
8875
25302000
8875
2014930
89
90879997
88459999
88849998
24419400
88849998
2014101
88699997
88940002
86040001
86099998
24029600
86099998
2014102
86269997
88199997
85611
87059998
21469700
87059998
2014103
88099998
89940002
87650002
88099998
18485700
88099998
2014106
89150002
89650002
88059998
88309998
9268400
88309998
2014107
87949997
89699997
87059998
87669998
12791700
87669998
2014108
88
885
87059998
88300003
10252600
88300003
2014109
88510002
90349998
88
88790001
21507000
88790001
20141010
8825
88739998
85239998
85879997
15431400
85879997
20141013
86849998
86889999
84919998
85120003
14845000
85120003
20141014
85809998
85879997
83220001
84949997
15559200
84949997
20141015
84040001
86489998
82809998
85599998
16824300
85599998
20141016
84980003
89175003
84014999
88849998
15232000
88849998
20141017
90400002
90900002
87669998
87910004
17360700
87910004
20141020
88
895
87860001
88260002
9891400
88260002
20141021
89099998
925
885
90900002
23243800
90900002
20141022
9225
935
91010002
91629997
20312500
91629997
20141023
92919998
94699997
9282
94449997
20641000
94449997
20141024
9507
98
94779999
95760002
32132600
95760002
20141027
97
98849998
96300003
97790001
28302400
97790001
20141028
99839996
100669998
98610001
9968
32003600
9968
20141029
99879997
100
9682
98309998
28655400
98309998
20141030
98480003
99440002
97300003
98730003
15484600
98730003
20141031
100099998
100220001
98136002
98599998
18128300
98599998
2014113
99669998
102800003
99050003
101800003
40883700
101800003
2014114
100425003
106359001
99510002
10607
67814000
10607
2014115
108480003
110139999
106480003
108669998
48344000
108669998
2014116
109300003
111699997
107209999
11157
33609000
11157
2014117
11293
114769997
11175
114559998
51457000
114559998
20141110
117269997
119449997
115199997
119150002
75971000
119150002
20141111
11725
117550003
113690002
114540001
70983600
114540001

20141112
115050003
11907
114019997
118199997
53908000
118199997
20141113
119300003
120
114550003
114839996
62163000
114839996
20141114
115059998
115389999
113349998
115099998
29849000
115099998
20141117
115440002
115629997
113129997
11425
22573000
11425
20141118
114330002
114379997
110410004
110809998
41098000
110809998
20141119
109830002
11068
107220001
10882
46841000
10882
20141120
107809998
112440002
107260002
10982
36489000
10982
20141121
113209999
1135
110434998
110730003
27432000
110730003
20141124
112
11393
111550003
113919998
20646000
113919998
20141125
114940002
115169998
112330002
113470001
23485000
113470001
20141126
113330002
113739998
112330002
112669998
11794700
112669998
20141128
113139999
113230003
111110001
111639999
8077800
111639999
2014121
110019997
110050003
103896004
105989998
38464200
105989998
2014122
107349998
110
106610001
109889999
18651700
109889999
2014123
110400002
11168
108797997
110639999
16221100
110639999
2014124
110099998
1105
108910004
109169998
10779300
109169998
2014125
109599998
110349998
107760002
107900002
12148100
107900002
2014128
105970001
107400002
104209999
10507
19217300
10507
2014129
102269997
107949997
101199997
107480003
24866800
107480003
20141210
107089996
107379997
103510002
103879997
18466700
103879997
20141211
104440002
106839996
104290001
104970001
15684300
104970001
20141212
104699997
107449997
104179001
105110001
14537600
105110001
20141215
106389999
107769997
103699997
104699997
16521800
104699997
20141216
10375
10768
103699997
105769997
21700600
105769997
20141217
107110001
109190002
106279999
109019997
17311100
109019997
20141218
110580002
111199997
108260002
10925
22788100
10925
20141219
10993
110650002
108040001
110650002
14857800
110650002
20141222
110629997
110980003
108529999
108769997
13041200
108769997
20141223
108300003
108470001
103879997
105519997
19096300
105519997
20141224
10568
107209999
105599998
105949997
5870400
105949997
20141226
105989998
106940002
1055
105949997
6529100
105949997
20141229
105949997
107660004
105639999
105980003
8068600
105980003
20141230
105639999
106709999
105129997
10575
10205700
10575
20141231
106459999
106470001
103690002
103940002
10283400
103940002
201512
104239998
104720001
102519997
103599998
12303400
103599998
201515
102760002
103019997
99900002
101
18337000
101
201516
10125
103849998
100110001
10332
15720400
10332
201517
104589996
104739998
102029999
102129997
11052200
102129997
201518
102949997
105339996
10268
105029999
12942100
105029999
201519
105239998
105300003
102889999
103019997
10222200
103019997
2015112
103199997
103360001
101209999
101620003
7997200
101620003

2015113
102589996
102849998
100010002
100769997
11294400
100769997
2015114
99279999
10018
98059998
99580002
17808000
99580002
2015115
99669998
100139999
96019997
96309998
18260100
96309998
2015116
96089996
97800003
95519997
96889999
13327900
96889999
2015120
98300003
100209999
97589996
100040001
12105600
100040001
2015121
10075
103860001
10032
103290001
15186900
103290001
2015122
104599998
104919998
103099998
104
11433000
104
2015123
104019997
105199997
103019997
103110001
9873800
103110001
2015126
104400002
105129997
103330002
103989998
10664900
103989998
2015127
102889999
10357
100580002
102940002
15659900
102940002
2015128
100300003
101489998
97790001
98449997
42144700
98449997
2015129
90529999
90739998
87360001
89809998
76561400
89809998
2015130
89599998
92
88110001
89080002
36806900
89080002
201522
91129997
91660004
88610001
90129997
18865300
90129997
201523
91650002
91650002
89900002
90610001
13512300
90610001
201524
90989998
91879997
89480003
90
14643600
90
201525
89580002
89839996
86099998
87
28926200
87
201526
87110001
87400002
85419998
8568
17587600
8568
201529
85830002
8675
85470001
86
12109500
86
2015210
87010002
87470001
86519997
87260002
12043300
87260002
2015211
87580002
87699997
8582
86
12391900
86
2015212
85599998
88300003
85550003
87099998
15177800
87099998
2015213
88199997
89300003
87650002
89050003
14665200
89050003
2015217
88779999
88989998
86699997
86849998
15191700
86849998
2015218
87099998
8743
865
86739998
7422300
86739998
2015219
86809998
87870003
86709999
86889999
7604100
86889999
2015220
8725
87290001
86379997
86639999
7821700
86639999
2015223
86510002
8668
8525
85470001
9367900
85470001
2015224
85529999
85529999
83879997
84690002
15846400
84690002
2015225
84379997
86830002
84360001
86190002
13645700
86190002
2015226
86919998
87160004
85199997
85370003
8763300
85370003
2015227
85949997
86559998
85
85120003
8377200
85120003
201532
85
85019997
8375
84
11213400
84
201533
82949997
8325
80029999
81580002
39246100
81580002
201534
80269997
85825996
80169998
85489998
36607200
85489998
201535
8575
86269997
84010002
86099998
18514800
86099998
201536
85739998
86
84050003
84400002
10673700
84400002
201539
84349998
84349998
81480003
82529999
17616500
82529999
2015310
81089996
83150002
80650002
82970001
13817000
82970001
2015311
83
83379997
81190002
81989998
12768700
81989998
2015312
82099998
82900002
81529999
81919998
11232000
81919998

2015313
81800003
81919998
80769997
81860001
12663300
81860001
2015316
82010002
85199997
81940002
84
16905700
84
2015317
84010002
85099998
83510002
845
17639000
845
2015318
83870003
85949997
83300003
84589996
35663000
84589996
2015319
85110001
87040001
85
85739998
30454700
85739998
2015320
86330002
86800003
85089996
85199997
21181500
85199997
2015323
8525
85529999
84209999
8425
11184000
8425
2015324
84349998
845
82389999
83629997
14545100
83629997
2015325
83940002
84480003
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201579
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20151023
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